If I Were The GM – Part 2

Welcome to the second installment of “If I were the GM.” Previously we covered the potential signing of free agent LW Ray Whitney in an effort to boost the Rangers offense. Today we consider whether the Ducks might be willing to discuss either of their two stud scoring forwards, Bobby Ryan or Corey Perry, and what those players might cost the Rangers in a trade.

First let’s start with whether or not the Ducks would entertain a deal for one of their star scorers. In the case of Ryan, he has three years remaining on his contract with a relatively cheap cap hit of $5.1 million. It’s not easy to find a consistent 30-goal scorer for that price and with that term remaining on the open market which is why it’s difficult to believe the Ducks would trade him in the first place.

Perry is one year removed from a 50-goal campaign and a Hart Trophy selection. He has averaged 36.5 goals per season over the last four years and has one year remaining on his deal with a cap hit of $5.325 million. It’s thought that the Ducks would probably like to re-sign Perry but if he were to be moved his value might not be as high as his talent and production would suggest since there is only one more year of team control.

One thing the Ducks will surely wait for before even considering trading either Ryan or Perry is word from Teemu Selanne on his plans for next season. If he returns to play another year the Ducks might be more willing to listen on Ryan and/or Perry. Should he decide to call it quits then chances are the Ducks won’t have much interest in dealing away another scoring option.

Realistically I believe the Ducks are content going into the season with their core intact. They were one of the better teams in the second half of the year and will look to build upon that with a better start this year. The only way I see Anaheim moving either player is if the player requests a trade or if they are overwhelmed by an offer.

That being said, if I were the GM of the Rangers I would still make that phone call specifically to talk about Ryan and here’s why. Ryan has been exceptionally consistent during his four full NHL campaigns, never scoring fewer than 31 goals in a season and never more than 35. If you take his goals-per-game rate recorded over the last four years and prorate it over an 82-game schedule he would have 35 markers.

The only concerning part of Ryan’s game is his decrease in PP production. In 2008 – 2009 and 2009 – 2010, Ryan posted 7.35 and 5.36 PP Pts/60 minutes of PP ice time respectively. The last two years his scoring rate on the man-advantage has dropped to 3.13 and 4.18 for every 60 minutes of PP ice time. The Rangers need help on the PP but I’m willing to take a near certain 30+ goals in the regular season no matter how they’re scored.

Assuming that Anaheim GM Bob Murray doesn’t hang up the phone after I ask him if he’s willing to discuss Ryan (or Perry) the topic of price is sure to come up. For salary cap reasons, Dubinsky would be in the return package. Now Dubinsky isn’t near the player Ryan is but if he can return to potting 20 – 25 goals per he would at least replace some of the offense the Ducks would lose from Ryan.

Anaheim might be willing to take on Dubinsky but that’s hardly enough value to convince the Ducks to make the deal. They’ll need a ton more value than that and that’s where Marc Staal comes in. Before you guys call me crazy, hear me out.

I realize Staal is a former All-Star who was just rounding his game back into form toward the end of the season after missing the first three months due to post-concussion symptoms. No one values depth on defense more than I do and dealing Staal would create a large hole on the blue line. However, if the Rangers do have any depth on defense it’s on the left side where former first-round pick Tim Erixon looks to be just about ready to nail down a permanent spot.

With Ryan McDonagh developing into a top-notch lockdown defender and flashing some elite offensive skills, he appears poised to become not only the Rangers best defenseman but one of the top blue liners in the league. Del Zotto is currently the Blue Shirts best offensive defenseman and took a huge step forward as a two-way player as well last year. McDonagh will probably eat 25 minutes of ice time a game with Del Zotto accounting for another 20 or so. That leaves just 15 minutes or so for the third pair left defenseman which is just about the right for a rookie like Erixon to break into the league as a regular.

I can’t see a healthy Staal being used as a third pair defenseman getting just 15 – 18 minutes of ice per night. Sure you could use MDZ as the third pair guy and get Staal 20 minutes of ice a night but if the Rangers have any depth on D it’s here. If the Blue Shirts feel the need to make a trade to upgrade their offense up front they could use an established left D to highlight the return package and Staal might be the best bet to go.

We should also consider how well the Rangers played for the first three months with Staal sidelined. Even when he returned he wasn’t playing at near the level we are accustomed yet the Rangers were still good enough to maintain the top spot in the East. I’m not saying losing Staal wouldn’t hurt but we’ve at least seen the Rangers succeed without Staal.

The Ducks already have Lubomir Visnovsky and Cam Fowler as offensive blue liners and would likely prefer someone of a more defensive ilk. Given their druthers I’d guess they’d take Staal over MDZ. Staal would also bring some much needed youth to a Ducks blue line with just Fowler and Sbisa projected to be regulars under 30 years-old. Visnovsky, 35, will also be an unrestricted free agent following the 2012 – 2013 season so acquiring a guy like Staal provides some insurance if Visnovsky leaves town.

I’m not entirely convinced the Ducks would be swayed enough to move Ryan in exchange for Dubinsky and Staal. That might sound like a pretty solid return from the standpoint of a Rangers fan but remember the Ducks are under no pressure to make any move whatsoever and need to be compelled to do a deal.

Anaheim currently has either Saku Koivu (38 points) or Andrew Cogliano (26 points) slotted as their second-line pivot behind Ryan Getzlaf. Koivu was once the perfect second-line center but is definitely on the downside of a great career. Cogliano posted his best season in his rookie year of 2007- 2008 and his production has fallen off since. I would guess the club would be interested in adding another center capable of filling that spot and maybe they’d like Artem Anisimov. Or maybe they’d insist on a younger player like JT Miller. I’d be okay with Anisimov but would balk at Miller.

It’s also possible they’d request another prospect or the club’s first-round pick. That would of course be negotiable for me. Let’s assume for the sake of argument the deal becomes Staal, Dubinsky and Anisimov for Ryan with draft choice(s) involved to even things out. Here’s what the roster and cap situation would look like following the trade.

The deal leaves a hole at RW and the Rangers also would need to add at least a right D with Sauer likely out long-term with post-concussion symptoms. With more than $16 million in cap space available the Blue Shirts could easily use the free agent market to add those pieces.

Of course the likelihood of this happening is remote. There is certainly no guarantee Anaheim would be tempted by my offer although I do think it is a fair start. If this deal could be reached the Rangers would weaken their defense corps but they say you’ve got to give to get. All player acquisitions are fraught with risk and this would be no exception. Is it a deal worth considering? Absolutely. Is it one worth making from the Rangers standpoint? I think so.

Up next: Adding a third-line RW.

Related articles

• If I Were The GM – Part 1 (nyrnation.net)