If I Were The GM – Part 3

In the last installment we completed a hypothetical trade to bring LW Bobby Ryan to Manhattan. The deal created openings on the blue line, at RW and perhaps even for a 4^th line center assuming we conclude John Mitchell is better suited as the 13^th forward on the roster. In this installment we look to address the now vacant 3^rd line RW spot. Brandon Prust was listed as the 3^rd line RW in the last post but I prefer him on the 4^th line and killing penalties.

First let’s identify the qualities we want in our 3^rd line RW. Generally that line is tasked with checking the opposition’s scoring lines. That requires a player to be defensively responsible. Often these players can offer value on the PK as well.

The player should also be able to contribute offensively too. Brian Boyle, Ruslan Fedotenko and Prust often lined up in the role of third line checkers over the last couple of seasons. During that time the trio combined for 152 points (69 goals, 83 assists). That means our new third-liner must record about 11 goals and 14 assists in order to avoid a drop off in production from the position.

The Rangers also won’t want to spend a lot of money to fill the position. Fedotenko, the player who held down that third-line role a year ago, made $1.4 million last season and presumably that’s the salary range the Blue Shirts are comfortable with.

Of course the Rangers are noted for their shot-blocking prowess so any player added would need to be willing to do the same. They also generally boast several players among the league leaders in hits so it would be helpful if the player was also willing to take the body at any opportunity.

In addition to blocking shots and hits, I am also going to look at several advanced stats when doing this comparison. For a detailed explanation of these stats please visit www.behindthenet.ca. However for purposes of this post I will briefly explain the purpose and the context of each of these metrics.

Relative Corsi – In short this measures the difference in shot attempts for and against while a player is on the ice versus when he is off the ice. Its primary function is as an indicator of puck possession. Players who consistently post high Relative Corsi ratings help their club possess the puck more and puck possession is a direct corollary of goal scoring.

Quality of Competition (QoC) – This measures the level of competition faced by a player using the aggregate +/- and is given per 60 minutes. If the number is positive then that player opposed stiff competition. If it is negative then the player likely lined up against weaker competition in terms of +/-.

Quality of Teammates (QoT) – Works the same as QoC except that it applies to the players the individual skates with rather than those he skates against.

None of these stats necessarily mean much on their own but they can add valuable context to other measures. For example; a player’s production might spike but if we see his QoC was significantly lower and his QoT was higher than his norm we can deduce the player may have been a product of circumstance rather than simply improved play.

I also broke down all situational scoring stats to show how the candidates fared at ES, on the PP and on the PK. Note that the actual ice time should be looked at in conjunction with these results. One assist accrued by a player on the PK when he averages just a handful of seconds of SH ice time per game can artificially inflate his SH Pts/60 rate.

These stats are all given for the last three seasons. This is done to reveal any developing trends in player performance while also minimizing the impact of any statistical outlier so that the study isn’t skewed significantly one way or the other.

So who are the players under consideration? I hit the Cap Geek website to identify UFA RW’s who to my mind fit the profile of a third line player. Here’s the list of players I chose to consider with their cap hit last season and their age provided.

It occurred to me about ¾ of the way through culling the information that I should also include the man the Rangers are in essence looking to replace. Even though he is listed as and played mostly as a LW it is conceivable he could line up on the starboard side too.

Now here’s how each player fared using the traditional scoring numbers over the last three seasons.

Looking at the raw numbers here it would seem Mikael Samuelsson would be the best option among these players since he leads in scoring and plus-minus. Of course we have to recall that he benefitted from playing with Vancouver on a line with the Sedin twins and he won’t be doing that here.

Dvorak and Fedotenko recorded similar offensive numbers over this span and both appear to be in the midst of a steady decline in production.

The three remaining players all posted point-per-game (PPG) rates which are nearly identical. Now of course we know that ice time can skew some rate stats like PPG so the next table will show each player’s ice time averages with their scoring rates, per 60 minutes in each situation. That should make for a more “apples-to-apples” type of comparison.

That evens things out a bit. Samuelsson still owns an advantage in both ES and PP scoring but that advantage, at least at ES, is much slighter than the raw numbers originally suggested. In fact, Boyes, Stempniak and Langenbrunner all pulled to within 0.16 points-per-60. That would equate to about one point in roughly thirty games at ES. That’s a pretty insignificant difference.

Dvorak and Fedotenko still pull up the rear in scoring. Let’s see if they can make up some of that in other categories.

This is where Dvorak and Feds look a little better. While both recorded negative Relative Corsi ratings they did so playing against tough competition and with below-average linemates. If you look at Samuelsson, Boyle and Langenbrunner you can see that while they may have posted solid or better Relative Corsi ratings they have played with above-average linemates. Boyes, unlike Langenbrunner and Samuelsson, has faced below-average opponents in terms of plus/minus.

Stempniak has played with substandard linemates but also against below-average opponents. He posted the third best Relative Corsi on this list without any advantage or disadvantage due to the performance of his linemates or competition.

One last comparison before we rank the RW candidates in order of whom I would pursue. We know how important shot-blocking and sacrificing the body is to the Rangers defensive and team concept. Which of these candidates appears best suited to fit the mold of the typical Ranger player?

This is where Fedotenko shows us why he is a Torts favorite. He was far more proficient playing the body over the last three seasons and was also the most prolific shot-blocker of the bunch. Only Dvorak posted a blocked shot per 60 minutes rate even half of that which Feds produced. Considering how much the Rangers value those skills Fedotenko’s name has to jump up the list of free agent possibilities.

Now truthfully I don’t have some nifty algorithm I can plug all these numbers into to spit out the best conclusion. I just have to weigh in my head who I think represents the best fit using these numbers in conjunction with what I may have personally seen and information I have gathered from multiple scouting reports on these players. It isn’t all based on the numbers folks, despite what some of you may think. Any good decision is made after considering as much information as possible and advanced stats are just one part of the bigger puzzle. Besides, it’s just my opinion anyway. I can’t get fired for any recommendation I may make in a blog. So here’s my list of preferred RW candidates to fill the open RW spot on the roster following the completion of the hypothetical Bobby Ryan acquisition.

1. Lee Stempniak – He brings just enough of everything to the table. He’s scored goals at this level (a career-high 28 just two seasons ago), played in all situations and his positive Relative Corsi rating suggests he is useful in driving puck possession. He hasn’t been much of a shot-blocker in his career but he has the second best hits per 60 rate among the candidates. In my mind I can see him contributing in all situations and moving up and down the lineup as needed.
2. Jamie Langenbrunner – He finished just behind Stempniak in hits in this comparison and is known as a clutch playoff performer with leadership qualities. I also have this idea that he’d love to stick it to the Devils considering the acrimonious way his tenure there ended. He doesn’t score like he used to and has benefitted from high quality teammates the last few seasons but I think the intangibles make up some for those weaknesses/flaws.
3. Radek Dvorak – He still skates very well and is one of the better penalty-killers around. His scoring has cratered but he is still a threat on the PK with his speed. He’s also the only candidate that comes close to approaching Fedotenko’s shot-blocking numbers so he might be able to fit into Torts’ system.
4. Brad Boyes – Really experienced a dip in production (8 goals, 23 points last season) recording over ¾ of a point fewer per 60 minutes of ice time last year from the previous. Also doesn’t fit in well as a shot-blocker and physical forechecker. However, he could be an interesting buy low candidate given he has a 43-goal season (2007 – 2008) and followed that up with a 33-goal campaign. His single-season goal totals have since been 14, 17 and 8 suggesting he likely will never be a 30+ goal guy again. However on a cheap one-year deal he might be able to help out offensively on a scoring line while Gaborik recovers from offseason shoulder surgery. I must admit, a one-year contract with an AAV around $1 million, $1.5 million would intrigue me.
5. Ruslan Fedotenko – He’s been a good soldier for Torts at two different stops but with his dwindling scoring pace his days as an effective third-line player are about done. Never the fleetest of foot, Feds seems to have lost another step he probably never had to lose in the first place. I think it’s time to move on and try to upgrade.
6. Mikael Samuelsson – Yes, he’s the most prolific offensive player in this discussion but I can’t forget most of those points were scored while enjoying the luxury of skating with two of the world’s best players in Vancouver. He’s also not the most durable player and that is unlikely to change as he gets older. Samuelsson doesn’t block shots and offers practically zero value killing penalties. For me I look elsewhere for a third-line RW.

There you have it; my top candidate to sign this offseason to fill the 3^rd line RW spot is Lee Stempniak. I imagine many of the readers will have their own opinions, either favoring a different player on this list or having their own idea on who to sign to fill the role. Feel free to put your thoughts out there in the comments.